The news attracted a great deal of attention: according to media reports, OpenAI is said to have been in negotiations with the German government for months regarding a multi-billion AI campus in Germany. In the end, no investment materialised. Should this account prove to be true, it would be far more than just a missed opportunity to attract a business. It would be yet another warning sign for Germany as a business location.
The discussion should not be narrowed down to individual companies or funding programmes. What is far more crucial is why internationally active companies are becoming increasingly cautious, despite Germany’s large market and substantial government funding offers. Three aspects appear particularly relevant in this regard.
Firstly: investors need planning certainty. Investments running into the billions are calculated over decades. Companies expect stable framework conditions – in terms of permits, regulation, energy supply and digitalisation. Those who plan for the long term need the certainty that fundamental political and economic conditions will not be constantly changing. It is precisely in this regard that Germany has been perceived as increasingly difficult for years.
Secondly: Energy has long since become a competitive factor. Data centres and AI infrastructures, in particular, require energy that is available round the clock, predictable and affordable. If OpenAI did indeed insist on being supplied by French nuclear power, this would be less a debate about energy policy and more a reflection of economic reality. For companies, what counts is not the political symbolism of an energy source, but its availability, security of supply and predictability.
Thirdly: Subsidies alone cannot replace an attractive business location. Recent years have shown that even subsidy offers running into the billions do not guarantee investment. Companies do not base their decisions solely on the level of government grants. What is decisive, rather, is the overall package comprising infrastructure, skilled workers, an innovation ecosystem, energy supply and administrative efficiency. If these factors fail to convince, even substantial subsidies lose their impact.
Germany continues to possess considerable strengths: excellent research institutions, a high-performing industrial sector and a well-educated workforce. However, these locational advantages are increasingly proving insufficient if key competitive factors lose their appeal. The decline in direct investment and the reluctance of many companies to invest are therefore not merely statistical indicators, but signs of structural challenges.
The OpenAI case – provided the reports are confirmed – should therefore not be viewed as an isolated incident. It makes it clear that international investors today expect one thing above all else: reliability. Anyone wishing to attract future technologies to Germany must not only create financial incentives but also offer competitive framework conditions in the long term. Only then can Germany regain its appeal in the international competition for tomorrow’s investments.
