7 predictions for the development of identity and access management

January 2, 2024

Danny de Vreeze, VP IAM at Thales

1 AI will change the conditions for identity verification and create legislation

The growing potential and importance of AI in 2023 is hard to ignore. It is already making short work of data analysis, image generation and all manner of other processing and cognitive tasks. When these capabilities are applied to identity verification, new fields of application emerge. One example of the disruptive power of AI is the management of passenger flows at airports. AI can be used here for identity verification at electronic gates. The proliferation of artificial intelligence, combined with a future in which people increasingly identify and verify themselves digitally, is likely to give rise to new threats and techniques for counterfeiting and impersonation. 2024 will be the year when AI is used to circumvent identity technologies at will. This will lead to a proliferation of tools that can recognise AI and its markers, as well as calls for new laws to address the risk of counterfeiting.

2. passkeys will dominate digital banking in 2024

In the coming year, synchronised passkeys will prevail across all industries. This will drive the financial sector, especially banks, to introduce more passkeys in line with market demand while maintaining the level of compliance and security in digital banking. The challenge for banks is to do this efficiently and compliantly with emerging standards such as PSD3, which require multi-factor authentication and often rely on tools such as hardware tokens. Banks will address this challenge by investing in device-linked passkeys as opposed to synchronised passkeys to ensure similar benefits such as security and ease of use.

3. validated ID and attribute providers will drive zero-knowledge protocol and “trusted” user identities

In 2024, the major providers of identities and their attributes will enter the scene and drive the ID market forward with services such as better privacy protection, personalisation and differentiated access to resources. As ID cards evolve, people will increasingly rely on “trusted identities” for basic verification and access in everyday life – take identity wallets, for example. By 2024, all EU member states must provide every citizen with a digital identity wallet that they can use for both online and offline services in the EU. Digital ID wallets will give users more control over sharing granular and personalised access to attributes with service providers. Proof of zero trust will become increasingly popular, opening the doors to mandate registration and commercial business opportunities for data providers.

4. data sovereignty gains importance

GDPR continues to set the standard for data storage and processing at a regional level, but by 2024 the demand for this control will increase in the US and Canada. Organisations will meet these demands at an enterprise level by implementing strong data encryption methods, including bring-your-own-key and hold-your-own-key capabilities. At the individual level, users will benefit from more ways to consent to the use of their data, zero-knowledge proof and more. In the US in particular, we are seeing more movement on data privacy, which will also have an impact on data sovereignty in discussions with legislators.

5. development of digital currencies

Both digital identity and currency technologies and related agreements are advancing. This year, Apple expanded its existing partnership with major US bank Goldman Sachs, launching a new high-interest savings account accessible via Apple’s own credit card and offering deep digital wallet integration. This was just one of several financial offerings announced by the company this year – not to mention companies like Google, which has already had an EU-wide e-money licence since 2019. The European Central Bank is accelerating its digital euro project and the US government is pushing ahead with its own currency as part of “Project Cedar”. Therefore, the environment is ripe for a major breakthrough of this type of currency in 2024.

6. encryption and signing keys will have their importance for identity and data security in 2024

Data sovereignty is a growing concern for all types of global organisations – discouraging them from moving to the public cloud, especially if they are based outside the US. At the same time, we are seeing tremendous growth in the use of signing keys for both passwordless identity verification and encryption. In 2024, more centralised key management systems will come onto the market. They will be tightly integrated with public cloud providers, helping to remove the barrier that currently exists for many organisations to fully transition to the public cloud. By giving organisations greater control over the entire lifecycle of their encryption keys, companies can provide their customers with the necessary guarantees for the sovereignty of their data.

7 Digital trust in collaborative networks will be critical to the growth and success of organisations

Collaborative networks are widely used in modern manufacturing business models to support today’s fast-paced innovation and complex supply chains. Efficiently and securely managing different levels of trust in collaborative networks is critical for product development and time to market. The user experience for consumer identities and business-critical identity proofing and verification in banking is a model for secure B2B identity management across all industries. The aim is to enable secure, rationalised and password-free onboarding and authentication of different users in collaborative networks. At the same time, risks are to be minimised and business continuity and its success accelerated.

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