The global market for drones and autonomous robotics is facing a paradoxical development: whilst demand, areas of application and the pace of innovation are growing exponentially, the underlying supply chains are coming under increasing pressure. A recent study by Princeton University shows that critical raw materials, in particular, could become the limiting factor for the scaling of these technologies – with direct implications for industry, security and critical infrastructure.

Exponential growth meets limited resources

According to the researchers’ estimates, the number of civilian drones will increase many-fold annually over the next ten to 15 years. Specifically, the study forecasts a tenfold increase in annual production figures. The field of autonomous robotics is developing even more dynamically: here, humanoid and quadrupedal systems could increase by a factor of 100.

This development is driven by several trends: automation in industry and logistics, the increasing use of drones in security and inspection scenarios, and the deployment of autonomous systems in critical infrastructure. At the same time, demand is also rising in the military context, which further increases the pressure on available resources.

The key question is therefore no longer whether drones and robotics will become established, but to what extent the necessary raw materials are available.

Critical materials as a bottleneck

Drones and robotic systems are highly material-intensive. They require a wide range of specialised raw materials – from light metals and rare earths to high-performance batteries. Particularly relevant are materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel for energy storage, as well as rare earths for sensor technology, actuators and control systems.

The Princeton University study points out that the projected scaling up of production could lead to significant bottlenecks. Many of these raw materials are already geographically concentrated, making supply chains vulnerable to disruptions.

Furthermore, rising demand from other sectors – such as electric mobility or renewable energies – is further limiting availability. Drones and robotics are thus increasingly competing with other key industries for the same resources.

Security implications for businesses

This gives rise to new dimensions of risk for businesses, particularly in the security and critical infrastructure sectors. Drones are increasingly being used for surveillance, inspection and hazard prevention, whilst autonomous robots are taking on tasks in sensitive areas – from access control to industrial maintenance.

In this context, raw material shortages can lead to the following challenges:

• Delivery delays for security-critical systems
• Cost increases due to volatile raw material prices
• Dependencies on individual supplier countries or manufacturers
• Restricted innovation cycles, as new technologies are more difficult to scale

This makes material availability a strategic factor for the resilience of technology-based security architectures.

Recycling and design as the key to resilience

A key starting point for mitigating these risks lies in design for recycling. The Princeton University study emphasises that the early integration of circular economy principles into product development can reduce dependence on primary raw materials.

In concrete terms, this means:

• Designing modular systems that can be more easily dismantled and reused
• Using standardised components to simplify repair and recycling
• Reducing material-intensive construction methods in favour of more efficient designs

Such an approach shifts the focus from linear production towards closed material cycles – a paradigm shift that is relevant not only ecologically but also economically.

Outlook: Material strategy becomes a key competence

The study’s findings highlight that technological progress in the field of drones and robotics increasingly depends on material strategy decisions. Companies must adapt their procurement and development strategies accordingly to remain competitive in the long term.

For the security industry, this means that, alongside software, AI and system integration, control over physical resources will also become a decisive factor for success in the future. Those who focus early on resilient supply chains, alternative materials and circular designs can not only mitigate the risks of raw material shortages but also use them strategically.

This demonstrates that the boom in autonomous systems is not just a question of technological innovation – but increasingly also a question of resource availability and sustainable system design.