The Allianz Risk Barometer 2025 highlights the most important threats to companies worldwide every year – and thus also provides valuable insights for the aviation industry. The results are based on assessments by experts from all areas of the sector, from airlines and maintenance companies to insurers. The picture for 2025 shows that the industry faces a multitude of complex challenges that could reinforce each other.

5th place: Skills shortage – a structural problem with long-term effects

Despite the full recovery of many markets from pandemic-related restrictions, aviation has a massive staffing problem. The demand for qualified specialists significantly exceeds supply – worldwide.

There are many reasons for this:

• Many experienced pilots, technicians and flight attendants left the profession or retired during the pandemic.
• The barriers to entry are high for young professionals: limited training places, long training periods and considerable costs.
• In some occupational fields, the job is considered less attractive, for example due to irregular working hours and high physical and psychological stress.

According to estimates, 300,000 additional pilots, 300,000 maintenance engineers and 600,000 cabin crew members will be needed in the next ten years. These figures make it clear that the personnel shortage cannot be closed in the short term. Rising salaries and higher recruitment costs will further increase pressure on airlines’ margins. In the long term, however, this trend could improve the attractiveness of these professions – but in the short term, it remains a clear risk factor.

4th place: Political risks and violence – security situation as a permanent burden

The global political situation remains tense: wars, civil wars, the threat of terrorism and unstable states characterise the environment in which aviation operates. Conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and parts of Africa have a direct impact on flight routes, insurance premiums and security concepts.

Airlines and authorities face the constant dilemma of reconciling safety, economic efficiency and passenger expectations. Geopolitical tensions can lead to airspace closures, diversions or even the suspension of flights at short notice – with direct consequences for capacity utilisation and profitability.

New threats, such as the targeted use of modern drone technology or cyber attacks in the context of conflicts, further exacerbate this danger.

3rd place: Legal and regulatory changes – between climate protection and competitiveness

In 2025, the regulatory landscape is more dynamic than ever. Pressure is mounting, particularly in the area of sustainability:

• The EU remains committed to its goal of making aviation climate-neutral by 2050.
• The US, on the other hand, has recently relaxed some environmental regulations, leading to differing standards.

For globally active airlines, this means that they must adapt to different sets of rules at the same time. The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) requires companies to provide comprehensive and uniform reporting on sustainability aspects. Errors or ambiguities can lead not only to financial penalties, but also to reputational damage. Added to this are potentially rising costs for the implementation of new environmental technologies, sustainable fuels and more modern fleets.

Second place: Business interruptions due to supply chain problems – bottlenecks at all levels

Aviation is highly dependent on complex, international supply chains. Even minor disruptions can have a significant impact on operations. Several factors will exacerbate the situation in 2025:

• Delayed deliveries of new aircraft due to full order books at manufacturers.
• Shortages of spare parts, leading to longer maintenance times.
• Rising leasing rates due to the low supply of operational aircraft.

The global aircraft fleet is ageing – averaging 14.8 years. Older aircraft consume more fuel, are more expensive to maintain and cause higher emissions. This not only slows down sustainability goals, but also leads to additional costs for operators. Smaller airlines in emerging markets are particularly affected, as they are mostly reliant on used aircraft, which are now remaining in service longer and are less likely to enter the used market.

1st place: Cyber incidents – the biggest threat for 2025

Digital connectivity makes aviation more efficient, but also more vulnerable. Cyber risks today go far beyond traditional hacker attacks:

• Ransomware and data theft with financial and legal consequences.
• Manipulation of navigation systems, for example through GPS spoofing, which is on the rise, especially in crisis regions.
• System failures due to faulty software updates or targeted attacks.

A single incident can have far-reaching consequences: operational disruptions, flight control service failures, passenger delays, high restoration costs and claims for damages. There is also the threat of long-term damage to reputation.

With the increasing integration of artificial intelligence and cloud services into operational processes, cyber security is becoming a key competitive factor – and requires massive investment in prevention, monitoring and emergency management.

Conclusion: Multi-layered risks require networked strategies

The aviation industry will face double pressure in 2025: it must secure its competitiveness while responding to a multitude of parallel risks. Skills shortages, geopolitical uncertainties, stricter regulations, fragile supply chains and cyber threats are intertwined and, in some cases, reinforce each other.

Companies that proactively address these challenges, invest in robust security and resilience concepts and keep their sustainability goals in mind will be better positioned in the long term.