ifo study highlights the growing impact of artificial intelligence on the labour market

Artificial intelligence is increasingly evolving from an efficiency tool into a key factor in strategic workforce planning. According to a recent survey by the ifo Institute, around one in two companies in Germany now considers job cuts resulting from the use of AI to be a possibility. Jobs based on standardised processes, data processing or administrative tasks are particularly affected.

The results make it clear that the debate on artificial intelligence is no longer just about new technologies. Instead, the future role of humans in digitalised working environments is increasingly taking centre stage.

Academic tasks are coming under greater scrutiny

It is noteworthy that companies do not primarily see the greatest pressure for automation in simple routine tasks. According to many firms, tasks performed by employees with vocational or university qualifications could in future be supported or partially replaced by AI systems.

The reason for this is the rapid development of generative AI applications. Modern systems can generate text, analyse data, draft reports, prepare presentations or evaluate complex information sets. Tasks that have long been regarded as typical knowledge work are thus increasingly falling within the sphere of influence of intelligent software.

Whilst industrial automation in the past primarily transformed manual processes, the current wave of AI is increasingly affecting office, administrative and service-sector roles.

Retail sees greatest potential for substitution

Expectations of potential staff reductions are particularly high in the retail sector. Here, companies see considerable potential for the use of intelligent systems in areas such as customer service, stock management, price optimisation or administrative processes.

Service companies also anticipate noticeable changes. Digital assistants, automated customer communication and AI-supported analysis systems are already taking on tasks that were previously carried out by staff.

At the same time, expectations vary significantly depending on the sector. Whilst some companies are focusing on comprehensive automation, others view AI more as a tool to support existing teams.

Productivity rather than job cuts?

Despite the debate over potential job losses, a more nuanced picture is emerging. Many companies do not aim to replace staff immediately. Instead, AI is intended to help address skills shortages, speed up processes and boost the productivity of existing teams.

Particularly against the backdrop of demographic change, numerous businesses see AI as a way to remain competitive with limited human resources. Many sectors are already facing a shortage of qualified specialists, meaning that freed-up capacity could be used to tackle growing workloads rather than to cut jobs.

The new wave of automation is impacting knowledge work

This development differs fundamentally from earlier phases of automation. Whilst machines in the past primarily supported or replaced physical labour, AI today affects cognitive tasks.

Preparing reports, analysing contracts, responding to customer enquiries or researching information – many of these tasks can now be automated, at least in part. This places new demands on employees.

There is an increasing demand for skills that AI cannot easily replace: strategic thinking, creativity, social skills, negotiation skills or the ability to make complex decisions in uncertain situations.

Companies face a skills gap

The real challenge is therefore likely to lie less in job cuts than in the transformation of existing roles. In future, many employees will have to work alongside AI systems rather than being completely replaced by them.

For companies, this means significant investment in further training and upskilling. Employees must learn to use AI tools productively, evaluate results critically and combine technological possibilities with professional expertise.

In future, competitive advantage will not arise solely from the use of AI, but from the ability to combine human skills and artificial intelligence in a meaningful way.

Security and governance are gaining in importance

As AI becomes more integrated into business processes, the demands on governance, data protection and compliance are also increasing. Companies must ensure that decisions remain transparent, data is protected and AI systems are used responsibly.

In regulated sectors in particular, the issue of transparency and control is increasingly becoming a decisive factor for success. The use of AI can boost productivity, but it also raises the bar for risk management and oversight.

Conclusion

The ifo survey shows that companies are increasingly assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on the labour market in concrete terms. Almost one in two companies believes it is possible that AI will replace jobs in the future. Jobs based on information processing, analysis or standardised knowledge processes could be particularly affected.

At the same time, there are many indications that the actual change lies less in massive job cuts than in a fundamental reorganisation of work. The crucial question will therefore not be whether humans will be replaced by AI, but which skills will in future distinguish between tasks that can be automated and indispensable human expertise.