The latest spring economic survey by the BHE Bundesverband Sicherheitstechnik e.V. sends a mixed signal to the security industry. On the one hand, the business situation remains stable overall; on the other, the figures clearly show that the market is cooling down. The average rating of 2.28, compared to 2.02 in autumn 2025, is not only worse than in the previous survey, but is already the fourth-weakest result since the survey began. Sentiment was last worse only at the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis in spring 2020. That alone should give the industry pause for thought.

Although around 66 per cent of companies still rate their situation as ‘good’ or ‘very good’, at the same time a good 8 per cent are already describing the business situation as ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’. The declines are now evident across almost all market segments. Particularly striking is the weakness in the private customer sector, which, with a score of 2.96, remains the problem child and has remained almost at the level of the last surveys. This is no coincidence. Rising living costs, consumer reluctance and economic uncertainty are having a direct impact on private investment – and thus also on traditional security technology for residential buildings.

But the commercial sector is also losing significant momentum. The rating has deteriorated from 2.26 in autumn 2025 to 2.41. At the same time, the business situation for public sector clients remains merely stable at 2.52. Companies are investing more cautiously, projects are being postponed, and budgets are being scrutinised more closely. Even in traditionally robust sectors, there are significant declines. Access control is particularly hard hit, with a deterioration from 2.15 to 2.44, as is fire alarm technology, which has fallen from 1.91 to 2.19. Burglar alarm technology has also deteriorated from 2.48 to 2.55. The declines remain comparatively small in video security, from 2.33 to 2.36, and in smoke and heat extraction systems, at 2.21 compared to 2.20. This makes it clear that the security industry is by no means completely decoupled from the general economic situation.

For years, the sector was regarded as virtually crisis-proof. Issues such as KRITIS protection, cybersecurity, perimeter protection and AI-supported security solutions ensured growth and stable demand. Many market players have become accustomed to the idea that security, as a market of the future, expands almost automatically. Yet this is precisely where a danger may lie. For the security industry, too, does not operate outside economic reality.

When industry, small and medium-sized enterprises and private households come under pressure, the willingness to invest inevitably declines. Added to this are geopolitical uncertainties, high energy prices, rising financing costs and an overall weak economy in Germany and Europe. Security remains relevant, of course – but not every project is implemented immediately in difficult times. The fact that the outlook for the coming months is now rated at just 2.34 further underscores this trend. Whilst almost two-thirds of companies still expect a good or very good situation, around 7 per cent now anticipate a negative business development.

The continuing high demand for skilled workers is therefore particularly noteworthy. Despite the more cautious market assessment, 54 per cent of companies are still looking for new staff, whilst around 46 per cent simply wish to maintain their current workforce. Only a single company currently expects to reduce its workforce. On the one hand, this demonstrates the long-term need for security technology expertise. On the other hand, this could lead to additional economic pressure: those who expand their workforce whilst facing stagnant or declining demand will inevitably increase their cost base.

The current survey is therefore less a direct warning sign of a crisis than a call for realism. Not everything is as rosy as it is still portrayed in parts of the industry. The security sector remains comparatively stable – but it too will have to adapt to more challenging market conditions. Those who are now banking exclusively on further growth could be in for a surprise if the economic situation continues to deteriorate.

Particularly in uncertain times, it will be crucial to prioritise investments more selectively, make business models more resilient, and view technological innovation not only as a driver of growth but increasingly as a factor in efficiency. The coming months are likely to reveal whether the sector is indeed as resilient as it has long considered itself to be.