The road as a crisis hotspot: How political violence and civil unrest will push companies to their limits in 2025
The global increase in politically motivated violence and civil unrest has become one of the most pressing business risks in 2024 and 2025. According to the latest Trend Report 2025 on Political Violence and Civil Unrest from Allianz Commercial, companies and insurers in Germany and internationally now consider demonstrations, riots and unrest to be one of the ten greatest business risks. This article highlights the latest statistical findings, outlines threat scenarios for businesses and identifies effective strategies for risk management and insurance cover.
Explosive growth in protest events
Since 2017, more than 800 significant protests against governments have been recorded in over 150 countries – 160 of these in 2024 alone, with 18 per cent of these protest movements lasting more than three months. In the 20 countries with the highest frequency of protests, Allianz Research recorded more than 80,000 incidents in 2024, with India (18,626 events), the United States (8,549), France (5,517), Germany (4,068) and Turkey (3,729) leading the way. Particularly worrying: in 2024, the number of protests in Germany rose by 35.9 percent compared to the previous year.
Globally, 51 percent of respondents in the Allianz Risk Barometer SRCC (strikes, riots, civil commotion) considered this to be their greatest concern – more than war (48%), supply chain disruptions (41%), terrorism and sabotage (40%) or protectionism (31%). In Colombia, France, South Africa and the USA, civil unrest even ranks first in the country ranking.
Regional risk profiles
Threat perception varies significantly by region. In Europe, 60 percent cited civil unrest as the top risk, followed by war (59%) and terrorism/sabotage (48%). In North and South America, 42% fear unrest and 43% fear war, while in Asia-Pacific, 36% see unrest, 44% see war and 30% see terrorism as the greatest risk. Africa/Middle East report 48% fear unrest and 43% worry about terrorist attacks.
From a national perspective, 55 percent in Germany rated civil unrest and the same percentage rated war as the top risk; 45 percent cited supply chain disruptions and 38 percent terrorism. In France, as many as 80 percent fear unrest, 48 percent fear war, and supply chain and terrorism risks. The figures are similarly high in the United Kingdom (62% civil unrest, 56% war, 56% supply chains) and the United States (58% civil unrest, 53% supply chains, 47% war). In Italy, war (80%) and supply chains (64%) are the main concerns. In South Africa, 79% see civil unrest as the greatest threat, while terrorism and supply chains only reach 30% and 27% respectively.
Vulnerable industries and locations
Companies rarely have a choice when it comes to becoming the target of violence. According to Allianz Commercial, the following are frequently affected:
- Government and public authority buildings – the scene of anti-government protests in more than 150 countries.
- Transport infrastructure and transport hubs – blockades lead to supply bottlenecks.
- Retail (especially luxury goods, pharmacies, branches of foreign brands) – their symbolic nature makes them targets for looting.
- Critical facilities such as petrol stations, supply networks and logistics centres – serious operational disruptions are possible here.
- Tourism and hospitality – travel bans increase economic pressure.
- Manufacturing facilities with just-in-time models – disruptions have an immediate global impact.
Terrorism and extremism
Parallel to civil unrest, the threat of terrorism is growing: according to the Global Terrorism Index, Islamic State (IS) killed over 1,800 people in 22 countries in 2024 – the highest death toll of any terrorist organisation. Islamist attacks rose by 63 per cent in the West, doubling to 67 in Europe. At the same time, right-wing and left-wing lone perpetrators are on the rise: over 100 extremist incidents were reported in the US and Germany. Individual actors operate as ‘lone wolves,’ which makes prevention and prosecution difficult.
Hybrid acts of sabotage
Allianz analyses document a dramatic increase in covert acts of sabotage by state-sponsored agents: in Europe, such incidents rose from 13 in 2023 to 44 in 2024. Targets included undersea cables, pipelines and water supply systems in Sweden, Germany and Finland. Logistics providers such as DHL and civilian shipping were also targeted by suspected spy ships. These ‘grey zone’ attacks continue despite the possible end of the war.
Cyber-physical attacks
Modern cyber attacks are increasingly targeting physical infrastructure. Old industrial control systems (ICS) and operational technology (OT) are often poorly patched. Examples:
- Refineries: Manipulated HMIs can cause fires or explosions.
- Water networks: In 2024, the group ‘Cyber Army of Russia Reborn’ took over water treatment plants in Texas and Indiana.
- Pipeline and energy supply: Ransomware attacks such as the one on Colonial Pipeline in 2021 disrupted fuel flows for months.
- Airport and rail infrastructure: Radio manipulation in the Polish railway system in August 2023 led to emergency braking and chaos.
57 percent of companies worldwide see cyber attacks on critical infrastructure as a top-two risk.
Climate protests on the rise
The declining political will to transition to renewable energy is fuelling militant environmental action. Between 2022 and 2023, climate-related disruptive actions rose by 120 percent, ranging from arson attacks on electricity pylons in Germany to the cutting of insurance cables in the United Kingdom. 41 percent of young adults (aged 18–34) support hostile activism to force social change.
Consequences for risk management and insurance
Given this complexity, companies need to act proactively. A business continuity plan (BCP) should cover all political scenarios – unrest, terrorism, sabotage, cyber attacks – and be rehearsed at least once a year. Site analyses identify particularly vulnerable assets in order to adapt protective measures and inventory strategy.
Property insurance typically covers basic risks from SRCC, while special political violence and terrorism (PVT) policies offer tailored coverage against riots, terrorism, war and sabotage risks. Demand for PVT riders rose by over 20 per cent in 2024, not only among global corporations but also increasingly in the SME segment.
SMEs are particularly at risk: political risks appear in the top 10 concerns of small businesses (revenue < £100 million) for the first time, ranking 10th, while they rank 9th among medium-sized businesses (revenue £100–500 million). Limited budgets and regional coverage make relocation and emergency measures difficult.
Conclusion
Political violence and civil unrest will not be a marginal phenomenon in 2025, but rather omnipresent business risks. The combination of mass protests, terrorist attacks, hybrid sabotage, cyber-physical attacks and militant environmental activism is challenging companies to comprehensively rethink their risk strategies. Only those who modernise their continuity plans, expand their insurance coverage in a targeted manner and increase operational resilience will be able to limit material damage, ensure the safety of their employees and safeguard business continuity in turbulent times.
